Ukrainian Crisis Could Trigger Instability in Region

Ukrainian Crisis Could Trigger Instability in Region 

Stratfor 24-Feb-14 

The Ukrainian crisis has now entered its next phase, with former President Viktor Yanukovich unseated and a new government likely to form in the coming days. However, the ensuing period will continue to be extremely difficult for Ukraine, as many economic and political questions remain unanswered. Another important question beyond the immediate situation in Ukraine is whether the uprising in the country could spur similar destabilizing movements elsewhere in the region. 

One country that is key to watch in this context is Belarus. Belarus experienced its own large demonstrations following controversial presidential elections in 2010. These protests were swiftly cracked down on by police, as incumbent president Aleksandr Lukashenko showed no appetite for allowing dissent against his rule. While the country has not experienced any significant protests since the demonstrations in Ukraine erupted, Belarus does have some similarities to the underlying conditions that created the crisis in Ukraine. 

One is an active support of opposition movements amongst European countries, most notably in Poland and Lithuania. Belarus is part of the same Eastern Partnership program, which seeks to build closer ties between the EU and its eastern periphery, and it was the rejection of these ties by Yanukovich that prompted the initial protests which spurred the EuroMaidan movement. While Belarus has much smaller popular support for the EU and larger political and cultural links with Russia than Ukraine, it cannot be ruled out that protests or efforts to destabilize the regime of Lukashenko could grow in the coming weeks and months. 

Another former Soviet country that could experience greater instability is Kazakhstan. Kazakhstan is currently suffering from a financial crisis in which the currency experienced a devaluation of nearly 20 percent earlier this month. The country also has seen some political volatility in recent years, including riots in the western oil-producing town of Zhanaozen in 2011. With the country on the verge of a succession and with long time leader Nursultan Nazarbayev accused of the same autocratic tendencies as Yanukovich and Lukashenko, the conditions for greater unrest in the country exist. 

Other countries in the region also have conditions that could take their cue from Ukraine and spur greater political instability and possible unrest. Kyrgyzstan has already experienced two revolutions in the past 10 years and a third cannot be ruled out. Most countries in the Caucasus and Central Asia have strong centralized leadership and marginalized elements of society that could become more willing to voice their opposition as a result of the Ukrainian uprising. 

A key player in all of these countries is Russia. Though Russia's position has been damaged by the unseating of Yanukovich and the possible emergence of a more Western-oriented government, it still contains significant leverage in the country. Russia's economic ties to the country are strong and some form of trade and financial relationship with Moscow is unavoidable for Kiev no matter who is in charge. Russia also has a naval presence in Sevastopol and could foment separatism in Crimea if it deems its interests in Ukraine are under considerable threat. 

This same leverage that Russia has in Ukraine applies elsewhere -- albeit in different forms -- throughout the region. Therefore while the rise of protest movements or other challenges to authorities in the former Soviet Union are possible under the current conditions, Russia will still remain a formidable player throughout the region.