Russia: Using Crimea as Leverage in Ukraine

Russia: Using Crimea as Leverage in Ukraine 

Stratfor 25-Feb-14 

Summary 

As the crisis in Ukraine enters a new phase, the key to the country's political and security future may be held in an unsuspecting place: Crimea, an autonomous peninsular republic in southern Ukraine. The Crimean parliament will hold an extraordinary session Feb. 26 to discuss the situation in Ukraine amid signs that the autonomous republic is aligning even more closely with Russia than it was before the outset of protests. As one of Russia's strongest sources of leverage in Ukraine, Crimea will be an avenue through which Moscow influences its western neighbor. Already there are rumors that Russia could act militarily, but ultimately how far Russia goes will depend on how the political situation plays out in Kiev. 

Analysis 

Crimea has long been firmly within Russia's sphere of influence. More than 60 percent of the republic is populated by ethnic Russians, and the special administrative zone of Sevastopol hosts Russia's Black Sea Fleet. So it comes as little surprise that Crimea saw fewer anti-government demonstrations, which pervaded the northern parts of the country, than it did pro-Russian counterprotests. On Feb. 24, some 20,000 pro-Russia demonstrators rallied in Sevastopol and named a Russian citizen, Alexei Chalov, the new mayor of the city. In earlier weeks, smaller protests were held elsewhere in Crimea, including the cities of Simferopol and Kerch, where pro-Russia protesters clashed with what few pro-EU protesters were present. 

Meanwhile, Russia has been further ingratiating itself with Crimea. Moscow has actively encouraged Crimeans to oppose the new government and the political developments in western Ukraine. In addition, Sergei Mironov, the leader of Russian political party A Just Russia, has proposed legislation that would simplify the process by which Ukrainians obtain Russian citizenship. Moreover, several lawmakers from the Russian Duma arrived in Crimea on Feb. 24, after which reports emerged that Russia was offering passports and fast-track citizenship to Crimean residents -- an offer similar to the one it extended to the residents of Abkhazia and South Ossetia shortly before the 2008 Russo-Georgian War. (These territories eventually declared independence from Georgia and were de facto annexed by Russia.) Also before the war, then-Russian President Dmitri Medvedev put forth a doctrine that granted military protection to Russian citizens throughout the world. A similar situation could be underway in Crimea. 

Requiring a Strategic Incentive 

Unconfirmed reports suggest that the Russian military has already begun to move toward Crimea. According to Oleh Tyahnybok, the leader of the nationalist Ukrainian Svoboda party, a large landing ship arrived in Sevastopol from the Russian port of Anapa. The ship, known as the Nikolai Filchenkov, allegedly carried at least 200 soldiers and an unknown number of special operations forces. The Russian military has not commented on these reports, but in any case troop deployment is largely irrelevant: Russia could overtake Crimea without additional detachments. It already maintains a presence of 26,000 troops in Sevastopol, and logistically it would only need to move those troops to the border with Ukraine and establish a military post there. 

However, none of these developments necessarily suggest the imminence of Russian military action. Moscow wants Ukraine to revert to the way it was before the protests; the Kremlin would intervene militarily only if Russian leaders determine they could not live with the new status quo. 

The Russians have made it clear to Germany and other EU countries that supported the anti-government protests what their red lines are: Ukraine integrating into Western institutions, the West providing training and weapons for Ukraine's military and security forces, and Kiev rejecting Russian financial assistance. 

So far, the Russians are keeping Crimea mildly agitated in case they feel as though they have to invade, but currently it is unclear whether or not Kiev will have a functioning government. Notably, the departure of former Ukrainian President Viktor Yanukovich has no bearing on Russia's calculations. If the Russians believe they are inching closer to their red lines, they may act. But dismembering Ukraine would require a strong strategic incentive, and right now such an incentive does not exist. 

In any case, several things would happen before Crimea would be absorbed outright. Crimea would first declare even greater autonomy from Ukraine before asking for Russian military protection. And while a union with Russia would be possible after Crimea finally announced its secession, it would not be altogether necessary. How far along these lines Crimea goes will depend on what happens in Kiev and what moves the new government makes.